The Green Bay Packers has a clear plan in place, and general manager Brian Gutekunst and executive vice president/director of football operations Russ Ball went into free agency ready to make it happen. And they probably were too extreme to give guard Aaron Banks a four-year, $77 million contract.
The idea is evident. They will play Banks at left guard and move Elgton Jenkins to center, allowing Josh Myers to leave in free agency. But based on pre-free agency projections, the Packers went well above the real market rate for a player who hasn’t a strong track record of high-level play.
Projections make it look like an overspend
NFL Market Match, a new tool developed by Cooper Davis, compared Banks’ profile to Nate Davis, Quenton Nelson, Austin Corbett, Graham Glasgow, and AJ Cann. And with that, he projected a three-year, $36 million ($12 million in yearly average).
Spotrac was even more narrow, projecting a three-year, $29.15 million contract ($9.7 million in yearly average). The profile comparisons were Ben Powers, Trey Pipkins, Jon Runyan, and Alex Cappa.
Either way, the Packers gave Banks a much higher average per year, reaching $19.25 million and making him the highest paid offensive linemen on the roster, surpassing Elgton Jenkins ($18 million yearly average).
Big average for good structure
The Packers usually have a tough time signing external free agents because they don’t guarantee anything beyond the signing bonus for non-quarterbacks. That’s just how they have operated since the Ted Thompson days.
But they don’t care nearly as much about the total value. So far, it hasn’t been reported the guaranteed part of the deal, nor the full details of the structure, but Banks will make $63 million over the first three years of it ($21 million per year), with $14 million in 2028.
Based on what the Packers usually do, there will be a significant signing bonus and low base salaries in Years 1 and 2, with a big spike in Year 3 forcing a decision on the player’s future. While it’s important to project an out, it’s also tough to sign a free agent and conclude that the best part of his deal is that you can cut him after two years.
And yes, the structure is important. But a cheaper player with the same type of structure could also be in play.
Options on the market
The Packers saw Aaron Banks, a 2021 second-round pick, as the ideal free agent based on his age (27), knowledge of a similar system under Kyle Shanahan, and physical profile at 6’5, 325 lbs.
But the guard market was impressively deep in this free agency. Banks ended up being the highest-paid one.
Yearly average of the guards signed on Day 1 of free agency:
- Patrick Mekari, Jacksonville Jaguars – $12.5 million
- James Daniels, Miami Dolphins – $8 million
- Alex Cappa, Las Vegas Raiders – $5.51 million
- Robert Jones, Dallas Cowboys – $4.75 million
The available players going onto Day 2 at the position include Kevin Zeitler, Will Hernandez, Will Fries, Teven Jenkins, and Mekhi Becton. All of them will probably make much less than Aaron Banks as well. The options could also include centers, which would keep Elgton Jenkins at left guard.
The Packers are betting on their infrastructure and track record to take the most out of a talented player in Aaron Banks. But the same conditions would also help a cheaper option. Gutekunst deserves the benefit of the doubt with his success to find offensive linemen, but there is real risk involved in this decision.