Aaron Leming’s 2025 Chicago Bears Mock Offseason Extravaganza…
In his annual mock offseason, Aaron Leming spells out (almost) every move the Bears should make to get them back into contention. Be prepared, it’s a long read!..
The start of the NFL’s “legal negotiation period” is a weekend away. The offseason has been more fun and engaging for Chicago Bears fans than the product on the field from September through early January. With new life being breathed into the organization after a full-on coaching staff reshuffle, head coach Ben Johnson and his staff should heavily influence how the Bears approach the acquisition period.
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For a third straight season, Chicago ranked near the top of the league in projected cap space. Thanks to general manager Ryan Poles’ conservative approach in the three previous offseasons, their ability to use simple restructures could free up another $69 million in cap space. That approach should still be used as a “break glass in case of emergency” route, but flexibility exists.
With a shiny, expensive new head coach and a front office that is motivated to win and win now, I’m expecting a more active free agent period than usual. After all, head coach Ben Johnson said it himself during his opening press conference: “The bar has never been set higher than it has been now.” His claims of them being ready to win and win now should be reflected in their approach this offseason, especially in free agency. The idea would be that with an expensive offseason, the team’s need for free agency in the coming years will be much more targeted and less reliant on filling multiple holes. With that in mind, let’s dive into yet another yearly Chicago Bears Mock Offseason.
What The Bears Will Be Working With (Finances):
2025 Cap Space ($279.2M + $5.084M rollover) $284.208M
Dead Cap: $4.052M
Current Cap Space (Top 51): $44.452M (Projecting veteran additions of Blackwell, Ogbongbemiga, and Smythe. Projected at -$3.98M)
Projected Draft Class: ($11.464M) $5.584M
In-Season Spending (53-man roster, practice squad, roster moves): $9M
Total Projected Functional Cap Space: $29.868M
Roster Specifics:
Current Roster: 54
Minimum Contract: $840K
Once the Bears reached the minimum 51 players on their 90-man roster, each additional signing, draft pick, or trade acquisition will replace the lowest contract on the Top 51 of the team’s roster. For example, if the Bears sign a player that accounts for a $2 million cap hit in 2025, that contract would replace an existing one of $840,000. Instead of absorbing the entire $2 million cap hit, the “true” cap consequence would be $1.16 million.
Unless that player is cut during training camp, the same thought process works when accounting for their upcoming draft class. The primary reason to point this out is to show players have “hidden savings” when signed, traded for, or drafted. Conversely, the same accounting purposes must be used if/when the team cuts a player. You’ll see two examples below.
According to Over The Cap, the Bears now rank 12th in total cap space ($51.382 million) and 13th in “effective” cap space ($43.278 million) after their two big trades along the offensive line. Effective cap space accounts for getting to the 51-player minimum and their projected draft class. It should be noted that this does not account for their recent futures signing of Maurice Alexander. It was, however, reflected in my numbers above. In addition to these numbers, they can save a maximum of $69.081 million from “simple” restructures or $112.1 million with “max” restructures. Without getting into much detail about this, max restructures are not something Poles will likely use due to adding in void years. Fans can still expect him to be relatively conservative regarding simple restructures. At most, I’d expect $20-25 million to come from restructures, if needed. In my mock, I choose to take advantage of one restructure for a player who will be here long after the impacts of dead money are an issue.
Defining the Bears’ Offseason Needs And Priorities
Top Needs (7): Center, Defensive End 2, Wide Receiver 3, Defensive Tackle 3, Tight End 2, Running Back 2/3, Long Snapper
None of the three starting interior offensive linemen from last year’s Week 1 depth chart are expected to be on the roster. We’ll see if they choose to re-sign Coleman Shelton as veteran depth and competition for a rookie. After Tuesday and Wednesday’s trades, center and defensive end become the top priorities. Defensive tackle depth with pass-rushing upside is another sizable need on the defensive side of the ball. Long snapper will be a need, especially with Patrick Scales’ back failing him. The right running back pairing is also needed in Johnson’s offense. Luckily, this is a historically deep rookie class. Finally, a starting third receiver will be necessary for this offense. The good news is that they have DJ Moore and Rome Odunze locked in for multiple years. Depth and speed should be a focus this offseason.
Other Needs: (6) Defensive End 3, Wide Receiver 4, Safety, Offensive Line Depth, Defensive Tackle 4, Kicker
This group of needs is essential, but there are more role players than starting players who could seriously factor into the upcoming season. Tight end will be important, as will better receiving depth. As Bears fans have learned, offensive line depth is also vastly essential and will need a boost, even if they re-sign Matt Pryor. Kicker competition might be needed, even if Cairo Santos is the favorite going in. Defensive line depth should also be a focus outside of adding a starting caliber name or two in the first wave.
NFL: Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images
Dealing With The Current Roster
Cuts: (2)
Total Saved: +$9.27M (+$29.868.M) *Already Accounted For
TE Gerald Everett $5.5 million savings ($4.66 million true savings) Already Done
DE Demarcus Walker $5.25M savings ($4.41 million true savings) Already Done
Everett seemed easy to cut after posting just eight catches for 36 yards. That was coming off the heels of the veteran tight end signing a two-year, $12 million deal last offseason. Walker was more of a surprise. Despite being one of their better defensive ends, Dennis Allen and his new staff have bigger plans. Ryan Bates could be added to this list if they value Matt Pryor at a similar price, but for now, we’ll assume they keep Bates, and Pryor will get paid elsewhere.
Restructures: (1)
Total Saved: +$10.12M (+$39.988M)
WR D.J. Moore (Convert $12.65 million of his 2025 $20.65 million base salary to a signing bonus)
New/(Old) cap hits:
2025: $14.78 million ($24.9 million)
2026-2028: $31.03 million ($28.5 million)
2029: $27.03 million ($24.5 million)
For this scenario, we did a “simple” restructure, which takes the majority (but not all) of Moore’s 2025 base salary and converts that into a signing bonus. This move primarily aims to take that $12.65 million base salary (plus a $250,000 non-prorated bonus) and spread the dead money over the next five years. Although Moore’s cap hit will go up for the remaining years, it’s only at a rate of $2.48 million from 2026 through 2029. By the 2027 offseason, Chicago could still release Moore with a non-June 1st designation and save $20.5 million. In the grand scheme, it’s a minor move for the future while immediately giving the Bears an extra $10.12 million in cap space this year. As a reminder, any of the money that isn’t spent will be rolled over into next year’s cap total. It also gives them more flexibility for the offseason with limited impact on the future cap outlook.
Re-Signs: (9)
Total Spent: -$3.87M (+$36.108M)
LB Jack Sanborn 2 years, $5.5 million ($3.045 million guaranteed) (Comp: Robert Spillane), $2.5 million in 2025
CB Josh Blackwell *projected* 2 year, $5.5 million, $2.5M in 2025 *Already Accounted For
LB Amen Ogbongbemiga 2 years, $5 million, $2M in 2025 *Already Accounted For
DT Chris Williams 1 year, $2 million ($750,000 guaranteed)
CB Jaylon Jones 1 year, $1.5 million ($350,000 guaranteed)
LS Scott Daly 1 year, $1.17 million ($300,000 guaranteed)
Exclusive Rights: (5)
DT Jonathan Ford 1 year, $1.03 million
iOL Bill Murray 1 year, $1.03 million *Already Done
DE Daniel Hardy 1 year, $1.03 million *Already Done
In total, Chicago has 23 unrestricted free agents, five restricted free agents, and five exclusive rights free agents that simply require the Bears to say “yes.” For the sake of simplicity, I’ve opted to extend all five exclusive rights free agents a tender, which is what you see above. As for the restricted free agents, the tender values are as follows:
First Round: $7.458 million
Second Round: $5.346 million
First Right of Refusal: $3.263 million
The tender meanings are pretty simple. If a team chooses to give a player a first-round tender, the price tag is the most expensive and would force any team who signs the player to an offer sheet to trade their 1st round pick in exchange (unless negotiated differently). The same concept exists for the second round tender. The First Right of Refusal (AKA, the “Original Round Tender”) means that a team can sign a player to an offer sheet, but the original tendering team has the choice of matching or refusing the offer.
The Bears have two candidates worthy of the lowest tender, Sanborn and Blackwell. It’s already been said that Sanborn will not be tendered, but I mocked both listed players to remain with the team on slightly different contracts. Sanborn will likely want to see what his market holds before returning. Blackwell is someone who could get done before Wednesday’s new league year.
Pryor and Carter would be the two names that “stick out” the most for their remaining free agents. Pryor could be re-signed as the primary interior backup, and Carter could be brought back as depth and a key special teams piece post-draft. For now, neither player was added to this exercise. I assume Daly stays at long snapper, considering Patrick Scales’ age and back issues. All in all, there shouldn’t be a lot of money spent on retaining players until they choose to bring back one of Teven Jenkins or Keenan Allen.
Syndication: The Indianapolis Star
Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Trades: (2) Total Spent: -$26.993M (+$36.108M) *Already Accounted For
Bears trade 2025 6th round pick to the Los Angeles Rams for OG Jonah Jackson $11.833M cap hits for 2025 and 2026.
Bears trade 2026 4th round pick to Kansas City Chiefs for OG Joe Thuney $16M cap hit for 2025.
Free Agents: (10) Total Spent: -$29.325M (+$6.783M)
While it would be fun to go through and project every minor free agent contract the Bears will sign, I will focus on the bigger deals and let the fillers fall where they will. As I wrote about earlier in the week, the Bears need to be aggressive and spend. They’re going into Year 2 of Caleb Williams’ rookie contract. They need to fully maximize this window, which involves taking more risks in free agency while waiting to pay their young players down the road.
DE Dayo Odeyingbo 4 years, $66 million ($39.5 million guaranteed) (Comp: PFF), $9M in 2025
Two weeks ago, when the Bears moved on from Walker, it became apparent that defensive end would be another focus for them during the offseason. Initially, I had projected Demarcus Lawrence in this spot on a short-term deal. Part of that was the timeline, and the other was annual average value. Since then, I’ve built in a minor restructure for Moore, which gives the Bears more money to go out and add an impact player to the defensive line. In an ideal world (for me), Chicago would spend a little more and add someone like Josh Sweat, Khalil Mack, or even Chase Young. Most of the smoke seems to be trending toward the former second-round pick. Odeyingbo had a career-high eight sacks in 2023 but dropped to three in 2024 despite having a higher pressure rate and a career-high seven stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, this isn’t the type of player who will be a perennial 10-sack-per-year player, but he’s big, well-rounded, and an ideal scheme fit under Allen. Coupled with a high-round draft pick, they could quickly remake their edge rushing depth.
C Drew Dalman 4 years, $56 million ($30 million guaranteed) (Comp: PFF), $8M in 2025
Call it a pipe dream, but landing the top center and another starting guard on the free agent market would be an excellent start to building a sustainably good offensive line. Dalman’s likely not worth $14 million per year, but it’s likely to happen in this market. Due to the Falcons’ cap issues, he’ll likely have to get that money outside of Atlanta. The 26-year-old has graded out as PFF’s 4th and 3rd best center over the last two seasons. He might be a little athletically limited, but he fits well in a zone-based blocking scheme. After listening to Johnson speak during multiple media appearances, I know he will greatly value a veteran center. If they miss on Dalman, veteran Ryan Kelly or Josh Myers could make sense. Make no mistake, though. Both would be sizable downgrades from Dalman.
DT Javon Hargrave 1 year, $5.125 million ($4.625 million guaranteed) (Comp: Folorunso Fatukasi)