Remember the Alamo? Colorado sure should. If there is anything that makes it easier to forget that game ever happened, it’s to bring in 33 transfer players who did not play in the game. While it’s natural to point to the bowl game last year and predict that history will you repeat, this is a completely different Colorado roster. How does BYU stack up against this version of the Buffaloes? Let’s take a look.
When Colorado has the ball
Colorado’s athleticism on offense cannot be questioned. While it’s impossible to replace four NFL players from last year’s Colorado offense, there are areas where Colorado has improved. Their offensive line is top 10 nationally in time to pressure allowed and they run the ball much more consistently than they did a year ago. They replaced three NFL wide receivers with three more receivers with NFL potential, and they replaced an NFL Quarterback with a more explosive athlete with a rocket arm in Kaidon Salter.
Colorado’s offense truly lives and dies with Salter, who has been tasked with either running or throwing on over 75% of his offensive snaps this season. That makes sense, as Salter is a dynamic playmaker, but Salter has a propensity for chaos, for better or worse. Only one quarterback nationally holds on to the ball longer than Kaiden Slater at 3.4 seconds per throw, due to an apparent discomfort in the pocket. When he does get the ball out in under 2.5 seconds from the pocket, Salter completes 88% of his passes with an average depth of target of under 2 yards per pass. However, when he holds the ball for longer than 2.5 seconds, his completion percentage drops to 38.7%, but boy are those completions spectacular. Salter averages 23 yards per completion on scrambles with four touchdowns on the year to go with a 4% turnover-worthy play rate. If you like unstable electricity, Salter is your QB.
To stop Salter, BYU has two options: either get pressure on Salter early or prepare to cover lightening quick receivers for five seconds or more. We recommend the former. When pressured, Salter completes 30% of his passes for under 10 yards per completion. BYU’s pass rush certainly has the bodies to get to Salter, but outside Evan Johnson and Tre Alexander, they might not have the corners to cover Colorado’s receivers 1-on-1 for long stretches.
When BYU has the ball
While the Colorado offense replaced a significant amount of talent from last year, the defense did not. Colorado ranks 121st in run defense and has the third worst coverage grade in the Power Four ahead of only UCLA and Virginia Tech. That is welcome news for a BYU offense that is top 10 in rushing and 4th nationally in passing efficiency on play action. On defense, Colorado is 70th in points per drive, 101st in available yards allowed, and 94th in yards per play allowed. In short, they struggle to get off the field. BYU’s offense, meanwhile, ranks 12th nationally in quality drive rate and is top 40 in points per drive and available yards gained despite red zone struggles against Stanford. Now that Bear Bachmeier is only getting stronger as a passer, the chances of Colorado slowing down BYU’s offense starts to dwindle.
Prediction
Ask yourself this question. What does Colorado do better than BYU’s response? BYU’s defense has allowed fewer total rush yards (133) this season than Colorado averages per game (141). Kaidon Salter is an electric player, but BYU faced a better statistical passer than Salter last week and held him 50 points below his season pass efficiency rating. Colorado can’t stop the run, while BYU is 4th nationally in yards after contact. Colorado is among the worst cover defenses in the country trying to stop a quarterback with a near perfect passer rating on play action in Bear Bachmeier. This truly is a matchup nightmare for Colorado.
Make no mistake, Colorado is certainly the most talented team BYU has played this season, but it’s clear they are a transfer-laden team struggling to find how they fit together. In the end, this one comes down to which coaching staff you trust more, and without question the answer is BYU. Colorado’s coaching staff looked lost against BYU in the Alamo bowl and hasn’t looked much better this season. Colorado’s staff botched the late-game clock management in a loss to Georgia Tech, benched their starting quarterback vs. Delaware, took a loss to Houston to prove a point to said quarterback, then gave him the job back against Wyoming.
In short, Colorado’s coaching staff doesn’t seem to know what they want to be, and BYU has been a well-oiled machine for 16 games now. For that reason, we are taking BYU big.
BYU 34 – 13 Colorado